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We map the hidden chains between government action, institutional capital, and price — before the market connects them.

Our knowledge graph traces every company, contract, and capital flow connected to the forces that move prices. When multiple data sources — each from a different part of the system — converge on the same chain, that's where the money moves.

Policy chain

China restricts gallium exports → AXTI is the dominant Western InP substrate supplier → RTX and AVAV sit 2 hops downstream → Armed Services member buys RTX and AVAV → $230M RTX DoD contract 3 days before detection

AXTI: +130% since Feb 12 · Read thesis →

5 independent data sources converged. That's a policy chain.

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The Intelligence Layer

The Knowledge Graph

Every government action, institutional filing, and capital shift creates a chain of forced moves. The graph traces them all.

AXTI SIVE AAOI TSMC LMT RTX MP AI Defense Energy Minerals Robotics

Most platforms scan for data points.
We map the chains underneath them.

Policy shifts, contract awards, institutional repositioning, congressional trades — and the downstream companies they force into motion.

When the government restricts gallium exports, the graph traces the chain through every downstream defense prime, semiconductor fab, and institutional holder exposed. When a senator on the Armed Services Committee files a disclosure, the graph connects it to every contract and company in the chain. When three hedge funds file 13Fs on the same defense name in the same quarter, the graph already mapped why.

Scanners show you what's already moving. The graph shows you what's about to move.

Explore the Graph →
AXTI +130% 48d | AAOI +91% 47d | SIVE +97% 8d

Three companies on the same photonics chain. The graph found each independently.

Live Graph Query

Supply Shock Simulator

Select a disruption. Watch the cascade propagate through real supply chain dependencies.

HBM3E memory is the binding constraint on AI GPU production. SK Hynix controls ~50% of supply. A bottleneck cascades into every major AI company.
0%
1-2 Multiple suppliers
3-4 Few alternatives
5 Sole source
601
Convergences Detected
34
Live Scanners
5yr
Backtest Dataset
AM
Ahmed Mir

I spotted a convergence in silver — congressional trades, a technical breakout, and institutional accumulation all hitting one after another. I bought calls and made 12x. But I sold at $48.

It went to $95.

The thesis was right. The entry was right. What I lacked was systematic convergence scoring — a way to know when enough structurally distinct data points had aligned to hold, not just enter.

Seven years inside Amazon's constraint systems — regulatory deadlines that couldn't slip, manufacturing floors that forced procurement, compliance rules that triggered real economic action regardless of anyone's intent. ForcedAlpha applies the same thinking: find the structural constraints that force capital to move, then map the chain before the market prices it.

Every data source is public. The structural intelligence that connects them is ours. Every alert is logged at detection, not hindsight. No cherry-picking, no silent deletions.

Our thesis: when governments act, institutions file, and capital shifts — every downstream chain is trackable before the market prices it. Read the framework →

Live Right Now

Real convergences detected this month. Updated daily.

LIVE CONVERGENCE
Live Convergence
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Live Detection

What's Converging Now

Each data domain is structurally distinct. When 3+ align within 30 days on one ticker, we flag it.

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34 Active

Intelligence Network

Automated collection across government, markets, and policy — feeding every data point into the knowledge graph.

Government
Congressional trades, lobbying, DOD contracts, activist stakes, bills, SEC filings
Markets
Options, insiders, 13F, technicals, buybacks, dilution, earnings, hyperscaler, buyback execution, short interest, FTD, debt maturity, treasury auctions, FedWatch
Policy
Federal policy, trade policy, prediction markets, BIS/IMF papers
Research
Transcript sentiment, SEC letters, COT, jobs, ETF flows, credit stress, ecosystem

Automated collection feeds every data point into the knowledge graph to detect chain-level convergences

Published Research & Theses

Original analysis covering defense, energy, critical minerals, and AI infrastructure

DATA
Congressional Sector Analysis
How Washington trades AI, Defense, Energy, Crypto, Robotics, Quantum & Cyber. Committee capture rates, disclosure delays, and the 44-Day Whisper.
7 Sectors 92% Overlap Feb 17, 2026
NEW
Solstice: The Hidden Nuclear Monopoly
The market prices SOLS as a refrigerant company. Inside: the only US uranium conversion facility. Legacy contracts repricing = pure margin expansion.
SOLS CCJ LEU Conviction: 8.1/10 Feb 14, 2026
NEW
Carpenter Technology: Specialty Alloy Tollbooth
500+ patents, 90% jet engine cert coverage. SASC senator buying, Loeb/Cohen/Griffin loading. EU €800B rearmament = structural demand floor.
CRS Conviction: 8.0/10 Feb 17, 2026
DEEP DIVE
Bloom Energy: The Data Center Power Bottleneck
Gas turbines sold out through 2028. Bloom deploys in 90 days. AEP exercised $2.65B option.
BE Conviction: 8.5/10 Feb 5, 2026
DEEP DIVE
MP Materials: America's Rare Earth Monopoly
Only US mine-to-magnet producer. DoD $400M equity + $110/kg price floor. DPA invoked. 7 converging data points.
MP Conviction: 7.3/10 Feb 10, 2026
THESIS
Amazon: AI Infrastructure Capex Cycle
Pelosi LEAPs + Soros +481% + $5.2M lobbying. 3-source convergence with $100B+ AWS AI build-out.
AMZN Conviction: 8.5/10 Feb 2026
GEO
China Rare Earth: Defense Supply Chain Risk
90% processing control. 99% heavy REE. The 0.1% Rule changes everything.
MP Defense Feb 15, 2026
MACRO
The Great Power Cycle: Dalio Framework
Stage 5 power transition. 4 of 5 war types active. 34 scanners mapped to conflict domains.
Framework 4/5 Active Feb 16, 2026
RESEARCH
Japan Supply Chain: $23.8T Downstream Exposure
48 companies. 15 materials with no alternative. Six domains. First computational mapping of cross-domain dependency. 830-node graph.
Supply Chain 6 Domains Mar 2026
DATA
Q4 2025 Quarterly Convergence Report
100 convergences from 34 scanners. 82% bullish. 17 high-conviction. Defense zero bearish. Original data publication.
100 Tickers 34 Sources Feb 15, 2026