Research and Analysis — Data-Driven Theses

How Convergence Detection Works

One data point is noise. When three independent sources align — that's a trade worth watching.

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Congressional Trade

Committee member trades stock in sector they regulate

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Prediction Markets

Polymarket odds shift on related policy events

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Policy Catalyst

Federal policy publications, bills, or contracts align

When all three align

Convergence Alert

Latest Research

NEW Supply Chain Mar 18, 2026

The CPO Supply Chain: Who Gates the $90B Optical Buildout

Co-packaged optics is the next architecture transition in AI infrastructure. We mapped the full supply chain — 10 layers, 50+ companies, every chokepoint — and scored each node by how much downstream value it gates. Interactive map with bottleneck severity, asymmetry ratios, and prediction engine integration.

Layers: 10 Companies: 50+ Proven: AXTI +79% Explore map →

NEW Deep Dive Feb 17, 2026

Congressional Sector Analysis: Where Oversight Meets Opportunity

178 trades across 7 strategic sectors. 90% of robotics trades come from defense committee members. 25 trades disclosed 40+ days after execution. Committee capture rates, transparency scores, and the 44-Day Whisper.

Sector Trades: 178 Committee Overlap: Up to 90% Late Disclosures: 25 Read analysis →

NEW Macro Framework Feb 16, 2026

The Great Power Cycle: Where We Are in the Dalio Framework

Mapping the US-China power transition through Ray Dalio’s Big Cycle framework. 8 determinants of power, 5 types of war already underway, $1T annual interest payments, and what it means for defense, energy, and technology positioning.

Stage: 5 of 6 War Types Active: 4 of 5 Scanners Mapped: 19 Read framework →

NEW Geopolitical Feb 15, 2026

China Rare Earth Dependency: Defense Supply Chain Risk Map

Interactive visualization of US defense dependency on Chinese rare earth processing. 90% processing control, 99% heavy REE, 6-11 month stockpile window. The 0.1% Rule, Myanmar shadow supply, weapons-system intensity matrix, and the scale gap between ambition and reality.

China Control: 90-99% Defense Systems: 6 mapped Elements: 10 tracked Read research →

NEW Data Publication Feb 15, 2026

Q4 2025 Quarterly Convergence Report

100 tickers where multiple independent data sources aligned. 82% bullish. 17 high-conviction convergences from 5+ sources. Defense and AI dominated. Original analysis from 34 automated scanners — the baseline quarter for QoQ trend tracking.

Convergences: 100 High-Conviction: 17 Sources: 34 scanners Read report →

NEW Framework Feb 14, 2026

The AI Infrastructure Bottleneck Framework

The Constraint Relay Race: mapping pricing power, capital cycles, and reflexivity across 7 layers of AI infrastructure — from Compute to Miniaturization. 45+ tickers analyzed through the lens of bottleneck migration and forced capital allocation.

Layers: 7 Tickers: 45+ Convergence Detected: 15 tickers Read framework →

NEW Thesis Feb 17, 2026

Tesla: The Geometric Optionality Machine

Five independent verticals — auto, energy storage, FSD, robotaxi, Optimus — each with different evidence maturity. Energy is the most quantifiable: 46.7 GWh deployed, 133 GWh capacity by 2026. The thesis is venture-style position sizing with public market liquidity.

Conviction: 7.8/10 Energy GWh: 46.7 Optionality Verticals: 5 Read thesis →

NEW Thesis Feb 13, 2026

Rambus: The Memory IP Tollbooth

2,150+ patents embedded in JEDEC memory standards. All three DRAM makers locked into licensing. Royalties scale directly with AI memory volume at near-zero marginal cost — every HBM chip shipped pays the toll.

Conviction: 8.2/10 Patents: 2,150+ DRAM Licensees: All 3 makers Read thesis →

NEW Thesis Feb 14, 2026

Solstice: The Hidden Nuclear Monopoly Inside a Refrigerant Company

The market prices SOLS as a $10B chemicals company at 10x EV/EBITDA. Hidden inside: the only US uranium conversion facility, with an NRC license through 2060. Legacy contracts repricing at identical cost = pure margin expansion. Dual AI exposure through nuclear power and data center cooling.

Conviction: 8.1/10 NRC License: Through 2060 Backlog: $2B Read thesis →

NEW Thesis Feb 17, 2026

Carpenter Technology: The Specialty Alloy Tollbooth for Western Rearmament

500+ patents embedded in 90% of jet engine certifications. SASC senator buying, Loeb/Cohen/Griffin loading. EU €800B rearmament as the structural demand floor. The certified monopoly in nickel superalloys Western rearmament cannot bypass.

Conviction: 8.0/10 Engine Certs: 90% FY27 Target: \$765–800M Read thesis →

Policy Alert Feb 2, 2026

DOE Nuclear Fast-Track: The Complete Beneficiary Stack

The DOE established a categorical exclusion for advanced nuclear reactors, allowing SMRs to bypass lengthy NEPA environmental reviews. We mapped the first, second, and third order beneficiaries.

First Order: SMR, OKLO Second Order: CCJ, LEU Third Order: CEG, VST, BWX Read analysis →

Thesis Feb 5, 2026

Bloom Energy: The Data Center Power Bottleneck Play

Gas turbines sold out through 2028. Bloom's SOFCs deploy in 90 days vs 4+ years. AEP exercised $2.65B option. The time-to-power arbitrage thesis.

Conviction: 8.1/10 Deploy Time: 90 days ITC Boost: 30% Read thesis →

Deep Dive Feb 10, 2026

MP Materials: America's Rare Earth Monopoly at the Center of the China Decoupling Trade

The only US integrated mine-to-magnet rare earth producer. DoD $400M equity stake + $110/kg NdPr price floor + 10-year offtake. DPA national emergency declared. $10B EXIM Project Vault. 7 converging ForcedAlpha indicators.

Conviction: 7.3/10 Price Floor: $110/kg Indicators: 7 sources Read thesis →

Thesis Feb 2026

Amazon: The AI Infrastructure Capex Cycle

AWS spending $100B+ on AI infrastructure. Vertical integration from copper to custom chips to AI models. Supply chain beneficiaries identified.

Capex: $100B+ Trainium: Custom Silicon Robots: 1M+ deployed Read thesis →

Coming Soon

Defense Committee Selling: What Appropriations Members Know

Three defense committee members sold NOC within a 2-week window. Analyzing the pattern and what it indicates about budget negotiations.

Analysis in progress