Conviction Surface

Three-pillar alpha detection merging convergence (empirical multi-source detection across 38 data feeds), forced action (structural analysis of who must act based on supply chain dependencies), and scenario cascade (probabilistic impact from prediction market events) into a single conviction score per ticker. Tickers with triple-pillar agreement represent the highest-conviction opportunities.

Ranked by unified conviction score. Each pillar normalizes independently to 0–100, combined via weighted geometric mean. Small and mid-cap companies receive proportionally higher forced action scores because structural dependency per dollar of market cap is what drives alpha.

Ticker	Score v	Pillars	Convergence	Forced Action	Scenario	Cap Band	Direction
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Full Conviction Surface

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How It Works

Each pillar normalizes independently to 0–100, then combined via weighted geometric mean. The geometric mean punishes zeros harder than arithmetic — a ticker scoring 80/80/80 across all three pillars outranks one scoring 100/100/0. Small and mid-cap companies receive proportionally higher forced action scores (cap-band normalization) because structural dependency per dollar of market cap is what drives alpha.

Convergence

Empirical detection across 38 data feeds. Congressional trades, 13F filings, insider buys, DOD contracts, lobbying, options flow, short interest, prediction markets — when independent actors pile into the same ticker, pay attention.

Highest weight — the most empirical pillar

Forced Action

Structural-deductive analysis of who MUST act. Supply chain graph reveals which companies are forced buyers of bottleneck materials — they have no alternative supplier. Urgency and severity of constraints drive the score.

Cap-band normalized for size

Scenario Cascade

Probabilistic impact from real-time prediction market scenarios cascaded through supply chain topology. If a geopolitical event has high probability AND your ticker sits downstream — the graph reveals who benefits or suffers.

Probabilistic overlay