Data Sources & Methodology

Polymarket — decentralized prediction market for geopolitical events. Markets map to affected tickers: defense (LMT, RTX, NOC), oil (XOM, OXY, COP), tankers (STNG, FRO, DHT), cyber (CRWD, PANW, FTNT), and airlines (DAL, UAL). Probability spikes cross-referenced with options IV data for edge window detection.

Kalshi — CFTC-regulated prediction market for macro outcomes. Tracks Fed rate distributions (KXFED), CPI (KXCPI, KXCPIYOY), GDP (KXGDP), and payrolls (KXPAYROLLS). Distribution statistics (mean, mode, skewness) reveal consensus shifts before official data releases. Validated by Federal Reserve research showing perfect Fed rate forecast accuracy since 2022.