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Patterns Tested
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Years of Data
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Avg 6M Return
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6M Win Rate
Holding Period Analysis
Average returns and win rates across all patterns by holding duration
Period
Return Distribution
Avg Return
Win Rate
Pattern Performance
6-month return and win rate by pattern type, with sample sizes for statistical significance
| Pattern | Avg Return (6M) | Median Return | Best | Worst | Win Rate | Strong Win Rate |
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Score Tier Validation
Higher conviction scores produce better outcomes -- the data confirms it
Methodology and Sources
Backtest uses historical daily price data from Jan 2021 to Feb 2026. Each pattern was identified at its trigger date, then tracked forward at 1-week, 1-month, 3-month, and 6-month checkpoints using actual closing prices. No look-ahead bias.
A "win" is any positive return. A "strong win" is a return exceeding +5%. Win rates and average returns include all outcomes -- winners and losers. Sample sizes (n) are shown for statistical transparency.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Returns shown are gross of fees, commissions, and slippage. These results reflect hypothetical backtested performance, not actual trading.